THE FALLOUT FROM WEST VIRGINIA

This past Tuesday Hillary Clinton won a resounding victory in West Virginia where she beat Obama by a margin of 2 to 1. The race was billed by the Clinton camp as proof that Obama could not carry working-class whites and as a result could not hope to beat Senator McCain in a General Election.

Obama’s loss begs two questions: Does it make sense for him to be at the top of a Democratic ticket? And, if he is at the top, would it make sense for Hillary to be the second name on the ticket as she clearly can carry the blue collar vote?

The first question is easy to answer. And the answer is, yes, it absolutely makes sense. Yes, Obama lost West Virginia by 41 points. However, West Virginia is the only state or common wealth to vote where that has been the case. Clinton’s victory in Pennsylvania was, by most counts, less then 10 points and, more recently, her win in Indiana was by less then 6 points. Obama has carried Massachusettes, Georgia, and North Carolina (to name a few) by at least 15 points a piece, and he carried Illinois by more then 50 points.*

As far as whether or not he is as capable of carrying the blue collar vote as she is, I think, again, that is a yes. Before the race was down to Obama and Clinton, John Edwards was carrying a large percentage of the working class and, Edwards has just endorsed Obama.

Suffice it to say Hillary’s victory in West Virginia is by no means reason to think Obama is not the stronger of the two candidates.

Then, there is the question of whether an Obama-Clinton ticket makes sense?

The day after Obama’s victory in North Carolina he went on Anderson Cooper’s show and he said that he thinks that Clinton would be a very capable Vice-President and it would be a mistake for any Democratic Candidate to not have her on their short list of possible V.Ps. However, with the primary not being over it does not make sense for him to answer that question.

Having said that (and it is an important point) I go back to the fact that Edwards has endorsed Obama. But there is more, an average of the Susquehanna, Rasmussen, and Quinipiac polls show that Obama would beat McCain by 5 points in Pennsylvania, one of the states that Hillary claimed victory in because of her ability to carry the working class.

5 points, this long before the General by no means gaurantees Obama the state. However, it does give him some room in choosing a VP. Hillary could very well bring in a percentage of the blue collar voters who otherwise might stay home. But Edwards might bring in that same population. And then, there are people like Biden who bring a great deal of experience on foreign relations issues to the ticket.

I think it is to early to say that a Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton would be either a plus or a minus. However, if it is going to be an issue which continues to be discussed, and it will undoubtedly be then it is important that we look at more then the issue of who can bring in the working class.